It will be a supremely valuable resource for anyone who wants to make good guesses about the future, or who wants to assess the guesses made by … I ought to say straight away that this book is too long at a wrist-busting 534 pages, but on the whole it is much better than its rival. … ",The attraction of Bayes's theorem, as Silver presents it, is that it concerns conditional probability: the probability that a theory or hypothesis is true if some event has happened. Nothing particularly new or interesting here, and I think Silver knew it. He discusses the difference between predictions that work and don’t—and the factors that cause them to fail or to succeed.
And while you could find plenty of other people calling it for Romney or Obama, they are for the most part just talking heads that don't actually care about reality. Somehow no one had thought to do this before. The second part is about how applying Bayes Theorem can make predictions go right.The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver is a 2012 Penguin publication.This book was a disappointment for me, and I feel that the time I spent reading it has been mostly wasted. If you've read Michael Lewis's The Big Short and Moneyball you can skip chapters 1 and 3 and if you've ever had a class that proves pundits are not any more accurate forecasters than the.Silver's gone 99 for 100 on predicting the state winners of the last two presidential elections. Prior to the first plane striking the twin towers, the initial estimate of how likely it was that terrorists would crash planes into Manhattan skyscrapers is given as 0.005%. Review The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail–but Some Don’t by NATE SILVER Description The Signal and the Noise conveys a lot of messages. The first part is an examination of all the ways that predictions go wrong. by Penguin,The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't.In most historical romances, love and marriage go together like...well, a horse and carriage. Pages: 534. Silver simply crunched the numbers and nailed the outcomes in every state. I ought to say straight away that this book is too long at a wrist-busting 534 pages, but on the whole it is much better than its rival. [For example, many statements that I would think are pretty much common knowledge are footnoted. The author was prior to 538 spread over two jobs - online poker (until it was made illegal in US - see below) and baseball stat evaluation (where he developed his own site which he sold to a professional site for which he then worked).Reading Nate Silver is like exhaling after holding your breath for a really long time. Not only does he discuss predictions, but he also observes successful forecasts of all time so as to distinguish success from failures.Nate Silver made use of the popularity of big data in 2012 and published this book about predictions. A lot of survey nonfiction like this can be saved with interesting collateral content. More importantly, he describes why methods that proved successful in one domain are inadequate or inappropriate to another domain. I normally devour books that interest me in a weekend, or a few weeks at most. Silver summarises it as: "a statement – expressed both mathematically and philosophically – about how we learn about the universe: that we learn about it through approximation, getting closer and closer to the truth as we gather more evidence. I could be wrong because I don't have much information on what (and why it) happened, so I am not actually judging him. The Signal and the Noise (Review) This is a review of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don’t by Nate Silver. 600/-ISBN: 978-1-846-14816-3. Nothing is more common than for someone like Silver--a media phenom with a strong platform (his 538 blog) to phone a book in to cash in on his 15 minutes. Nate Silver did a great job of compiling vignettes about humans and our inability to see the signal through the noise.Nathaniel Read "Nate" Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician and writer who analyzes baseball and elections. Should I read this? Kind of.I was expecting a lot of data but this was...a LOT of data.I wanted to like this book as I enjoy reading Silver's blog. etc. Review The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don’t .
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